Weather trend data offers mixed outlook for car wash operators

Weather has always shaped car wash and detail revenue, and long-term climate trends are prompting operators to ask whether they should plan differently. In an analysis published by Auto Laundry News, industry consultant Robert Roman walks through federal data on temperature, precipitation, and air quality to gauge how concerned operators should be.

The core message drawn from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration figures is that everyday weather is not simply getting worse. Instead, extreme events are becoming more frequent and severe, while average conditions shift gradually. For operators, that distinction matters more than headlines about worsening weather.

What the data shows

According to the analysis, average U.S. summertime temperatures rose 2.6 degrees between 1970 and 2024, and winter temperatures climbed 4 degrees. The EPA projects further increases by 2060, pointing to earlier and longer summers.

Operators in northern markets are already seeing less snow than in 1970, with the EPA citing a decline of roughly 0.19 percent per year. Total rainfall has not changed much nationally, but days of intense rainfall have increased about 0.5 percent per decade since 1900. Overall sunshine levels show no large nationwide trend, with desert areas running 70 to 90 percent of possible sunshine and cloudy regions 20 to 40 percent.

Coastal operators face a separate concern. Sea levels have risen 6 to 8 inches over the past century, and experts consider short-term increases of roughly 0.75 to 1.5 inches per year dependable. The article notes this raises the risk of nuisance flooding, infrastructure damage, and land erosion for washes near sea level.

On air quality, the analysis reports improvements: particulate matter concentrations down 37 percent since 2000, high ozone days down 30 to 40 percent, carbon monoxide down more than 80 percent since 1980, and greenhouse gases down 10 to 15 percent since 2007.

How to read the trends

Roman cautions that climate models are not weather forecasts, citing NASA, and that broad trends carry no single confidence figure. The practical takeaway he offers is to expect continuation of established trends rather than dramatic single-year swings.

He uses two examples. A wash in a region with declining snowfall should not expect suddenly dry winters, but rather a gradual continuation of the roughly 0.19 percent annual decrease. A coastal wash near sea level should not expect to be underwater, but should anticipate more frequent nuisance flooding and business disruption over time.

Why it matters for operators

Weather directly drives car wash volume, so understanding whether a bad season is an anomaly or part of a durable trend affects how operators budget, staff, and invest. The data suggests planning around gradual shifts rather than reacting to any single extreme event.

Operators in snow-belt markets that historically relied on winter salt and slush business should factor in a slow, steady decline in snowfall when projecting seasonal revenue and deciding whether to diversify service offerings. Coastal operators near sea level have a clearer action item: assess flood exposure, review insurance coverage, and plan for periodic business interruption from nuisance flooding that is likely to grow more common.

The broader lesson is that extreme events, not average conditions, pose the sharper risk. Contingency planning for heat waves, intense rainfall days, and flooding may prove more valuable than assuming everyday weather will meaningfully change year to year.